nd of the Cold War is still a close memory. Short-term predictions are chancy; the geopolitical map is too close to see entirely. Which brings this discussion back to the forecast of a future twenty years from now - and the analogy with the 19th century balance of powers.
After the chaos of the Napoleonic era, the 1815 "Peace of Metternich" lasted until the start of World War I in 1914. Stability was Metternich's legacy - a legacy pursued by such diverse characters as Bismarck, Gladstone, Disraeli and Teddy Roosevelt. Stability, admittedly had its price to pay in the numerous "small" wars fought during that century: the Franco-Prussian War (1870-1871) and the Crimean War (1851), to name but two. There were strains in society's fabric as well: the 1848 social protest uprisings, the seizing of France's capital by the Paris Commune (1871). Still, the prevailing situation was a general peace caused by the balance of power among several national entities: the nation-states of Britain, France and Germany - and the collapsing nation-empires of Russia and Austria-Hungary.
It was a competitive peace: each power contrived against the others for territorial sovereignty, economic position, and imperialistic expansion. The nation-state was the established political unit; every industrialized nation-state thought in terms of global impact. The exploitation of colonial regions and spheres-of-influence was a given. Capitalism emerged as the dominant economic system. The 19th century was the first fully "global" world economy. The military-industrial complex made its first appearance during this era, long before Dwight Eisenhower's 1961 speech warning against it. Like today and the foreseeable future, the 19th century multipolar balance-of-power required a military-industrial coordination of efforts, while needing general peace and international order to thrive.
This type of multipolar geopolitical balance-of-power will...