What will be the balance of geopolitical power in twenty years? Although different nation-states will be the players, it will resemble the multipolar balance-of-power that dominated 19th century Europe. The idea of "power" will be different than the 1800s concept. But there will be these key characteristics: (1) There will not be a return to the Cold War era's bipolar balance-of-power. (2) There will be a general peace created by a multipolar balance of international powers working together to enforce that peace. (3) Those international powers will be competitors, but they will nevertheless create alliances to maintain peace - because it will be in their best interests to do so. The geopolitical future will be a continuation of the present status quo, then, albeit with a certain hardening of positions.
To define the current status quo, one must start with the admission that ours is a time of transition. With the end of the Cold War, the world lost the stability of a bipolar geopolitical balance-of-power and entered a phase of multipolar uncertainty. Some observers consider the current situation to be unipolar. It is their contention that the United States is the sole remaining "superpower" now that the Soviet Union is defunct. Others challenge the concept of a U.S. hegemony: they consider the "new world order" an inherently unstable situation. In their opinion, the United States is staggering away from Cold War victory as damaged as the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the void left by the Soviet Union and an ever-weakening U.S.A., they argue, the United States steadily loses ground while new powers rise to positions of dominance.
This last scenario fits Modelski's geopolitical model based on his theory of cycles. The interpretation of a Modelskian view of the future has the "American Period" on the decline and about to be replaced. I cannot agree with that interpretation, however, because the e...